The World Trade Organization has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9%, from 1.9% in March, citing strong investment in artificial intelligence and supply chains adapting to disruption.
Its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics update, released on 8 October, projects goods trade growth of 4.1% in 2027. AI-enabling products, including semiconductors and servers, accounted for 47% of merchandise trade growth in the first half of this year, according to the WTO.
The stronger goods outlook contrasts with weaker expectations for commercial services. The organisation cut its 2026 services trade volume forecast to 3.3%, from 4.8%, as the Middle East conflict affected transport and international travel.
Regional prospects also differ sharply. Asia is forecast to record merchandise export growth of 9.9% this year, while the Middle East faces a 17.2% contraction. These figures are projections rather than final annual results.
Source: World Trade Organization, 8 October 2026.
Image: Shipping containers and port machinery. Photo by Diego F. Parra on Pexels. Illustrative photograph; not from the reported event.