The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, while warning that conflict, trade tensions and fiscal vulnerabilities could weaken the outlook.
Its October World Economic Outlook, released on 13 October, forecasts global headline inflation of 4.7% this year, easing to 4.1% in 2027. The estimates draw on information available through 1 October and may not incorporate subsequent data.
The report identifies energy-importing economies outside technology supply chains as particularly exposed. It also highlights the risk that expectations about artificial intelligence could be reassessed, alongside potential benefits from stronger AI investment and productivity gains.
The IMF urges governments to rebuild fiscal room, maintain monetary and financial stability, and strengthen international cooperation. For households facing rising living costs, it favours temporary, targeted income support over broad measures that suppress prices.
The forecasts remain conditional: a sustained reduction in geopolitical and trade tensions could improve the outlook, while renewed disruption could undermine it.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026.
Image: Modern office towers in London’s financial district. Photo by Quentin Guiot on Pexels. Illustrative photograph; not from the reported event.